The purpose of this online survey is to provide eligible Tibetan electorates with scientific and non-biased opinion poll designed to measure general public's view on their choice of candidates for the 2016 Sikyong's preliminary election.
- The poll opened on August 10, 2015 and closed on October 1, 2015
- The poll was shared using Google Form to collect the data via Facebook wall post and group posts
- Per survey administrator's understanding, these Facebook groups represent a larger section of general public.
- When the poll was shared on survey administrator's Facebook wall post, no individual were tagged in the post to minimize response biases. On the survey request, clear information were provided in terms of anonymity.
- The online poll carried only 7 questionnaire items with one on participant's eligibility; one on participant's vote; and the remaining five on participant's demographic.
Percentage of Participants by Age Group
Percentage of Participants by Country of Residence
Figure 7. A total of 546 participants are employed while 119 attends college, 36 are either unemployed or not working, 29 are either monk or nun and 173 consider themselves as others.
ANALYSIS OF SUPPORTERS
Who are the supporters of Lobsang Sangay?
Who are the supporters of Penpa Tsering?
Who are the supporters of Lukar Jam?
Who are the supporters of Tashi Wangdu?
Something to think about?
If you closely look at figure 28 and 29 above, among the two country of residence having the largest vote share in this opinion poll, there seems to be a shift in female participation. Female in North America tends to take more interest in the 2016 Sikyong preliminary election than those in India.
FINDINGS AND DISCUSSION
Lobsang Sangay, incumbent Sikyong of Central Tibetan Administration, tops the opinion poll with a whopping margin of 28% from the second candidate Penpa Tsering, Speaker of Tibetan Parliament in-Exile. Penpa Tsering (22%) is followed by Lukar Jam at 15% and Tashi Wangdu at 13%. As the fifth candidate for Sikyong Tashi Topgyal declared after the opening of this poll, he was not in the list of 2016 Sikyong candidates. However, in the future opinion poll, his name will be included.
If you take a closer look at the supporters of each candidates, you will understand the gaps. These gaps could be filled by any candidate if he gears his future campaign towards targeting these group of eligible voters.
Based on the findings of this online opinion poll, it's projected that Lobsang Sangay will emerge as the winner of 2016 Sikyong's preliminary election. He will be followed by Penpa Tsering, Tashi Wangdu, Lukar Jam and Tashi Topgyal respectively.
Online surveys are not without limitations. Some of the limitations of this online nomination survey are:
1. Participations of eligible Tibetan voters with no computer and English language skills were excluded from the study.
2. With no one-time participatory settings for the online poll, a participant could have voted more than one.
3. With Tibetan electorates spread across the world, it was not possible to adopt a good sampling technique. Therefore, the study’s finding cannot be termed as statistically significant.
4. As the fifth candidate for Sikyong Tashi Topgyal declared after the opening of this poll, he was not in the list of 2016 Sikyong candidates. However, in the future opinion poll, his name will be included.
Taking the time and space into consideration, I tried to not pull in too many details and analysis. If you have specific questions, please feel free to leave a comment here.
Note: If you are interested in looking at the raw data, please go to this link https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17VVt290rWKMl7JAGnd2_dHsfXmZsHWKhWm-yDENgeag/edit?usp=sharing